Padel AI Coach — Evidence Map

"The padel coaching strategic question sits in the Understanding stage of the strategic question because the product, segment, and moat are not yet locked. Awareness has happened: padel reached 35M+ players and 77,000 courts globally per the FIP World Padel Report 2025 and Playtomic Global Padel Report 2025."

Primary URL: FIP World Padel Report 2025 · Secondary URL: Playtomic Global Padel Report 2025

Aggregates segments, value mechanics, USP draft, and kill-experiments into the document the deck-assembler and adversarial review agents both read. Acts as the immutable downstream label set — once written, no downstream agent may alter its values.

Snapshot of the prompt graph executed for this run, with model assignments and stage gates.

"After losing a series of matches to a regular partner whose claimed rating outpaces the player, the player searches for a numeric rating that survives outside the home club."

Most-felt by: plateau-stuck regular and newly-ranked competitor. Confidence: 0.35.

Cited URLs: Playtomic, MATCHi, Padelytics, Clutch, FIP World Padel Report 2025, FIP, Spain growth in courts and licences.

"After three consecutive matches where the same shot decides the outcome the wrong way, the player stops trusting their own diagnosis and looks for an outside reading."

Most-felt by: plateau-stuck regular. Confidence: 0.30.

Cited URLs: Padelytics, Hudl pricing.

"After losing a high-paying student to a competing academy that offered better progress visibility, a club coach searches for tooling that surfaces between-session deltas without adding admin time."

Most-felt by: club coach (business-to-business-to-consumer). Confidence: 0.30.

Cited URLs: CoachLogic, Eyes On Padel, Hudl Assist, SPASH Match Analyzer.

"After a heated post-match discussion where the partner blamed the loss on the user, both players search for a neutral way to revisit the rallies before the next booking."

Most-felt by: travelling enthusiast and plateau-stuck regular. Confidence: 0.30.

Cited URLs: Eyes On Padel, PlaySight, Padelytics, Joao-M-Silva / padel_analytics.

Hierarchy linking the four jobs to higher-level goals and lower-level sub-jobs, plus enables / blocks / triggers / alternates edges. Critical chain identification feeds the value-mechanics ranking.

"Court booking and matchmaking network connecting players to clubs and partners across multiple countries. Cited as the largest padel booking network in 2025 reports."

Gap noted in card: "Coaching layer is shallow versus dedicated peers; analytics ride on top of self-declared levels. Player rating system has been re-tuned multiple times; cross-club consistency is debated by power users."

"Each match yields a structured shot-and-position record that compounds into a per-player longitudinal rating other clubs accept. Spain alone has 6M players against 109,040 federation licensees per FIP World Padel Report 2025 — vast unrated population."

stop test: "Reproduce the open-source baseline at Joao-M-Silva / padel_analytics into a working end-to-end smartphone pipeline; collect 50 matches from solo recruits. Success threshold: rating delta correlates with self-assessed level r ≥ 0.55 across 50 matches."

Each mechanic scored against five gates: distribution, network, data, hardware, vertical depth. At least one mechanic killed and two demoted per the discipline of avoiding 100%-pass reviews.

"global padel club market 'set to triple in value by 2026' — EUR 1.775B in 2023 → EUR 4.015B in 2026. 35 million players and 77,300 courts confirmed by the FIP World Padel Report 2025."

Primary URL: Deloitte / Playtomic Global Padel Report 2023 · FIP World Padel Report 2025.

"T1 sum 43,840 + T2 sum 22,125 = 65,965 courts. Global share 65,965 / 77,300 = 85.3%. The padel software product can theoretically reach 85% of all padel courts worldwide if T2 partner-led expansion fully executes."

Primary URL: FIP World Padel Report 2025 (PDF). Country-level court counts cross-checked against Padel Magazine FIP WPR 2025 country ranking.

"UAE — INCLUDE_IN_SAM. Verified quote: 'in 2023, the UAEPA had 155 clubs and 620 courts affiliated (+13% compared to 2022) and more than 1,900 registered players. More than 950 courts; 30% of all courts in Asia.'"

"Uzbekistan — EXCLUDE_FROM_SAM. Verified quote: '3 clubs, 8 courts (Padel.uz Mirabad 2 courts; BeFit Sky 2 courts; Padel.uz Yunusabad 4 courts) — all in Tashkent.' Below the 100-court SAM threshold."

Primary URLs: FIP, Focus on Arab Emirates 2024; Padel Lands Uzbekistan directory.

"Spain: 17,300 courts, 8.1% YoY. Beachhead — highest absolute court count globally; direct-channel reach overlaps; FEP licensees +8% YoY."

"Russia: 250 courts, 40% YoY. Beachhead — direct-readership advantage; Russian-language audience asset; on-device path satisfies 152-FZ. Reachability advantage flag = direct_audience (verified gap on audience size pending)."

Primary URLs: FIP World Padel Report 2025, FIP Silver Kazakhstan 2025, Padel Business Magazine Spain growth coverage.

Each capability rated as ship_solo, ship_solo_paid_apis, needs_partner, needs_capital, or needs_team. Anchors include open-source projects (Joao-M-Silva / padel_analytics), federation channels (FEP, FITP, FIP calendar), and paid-API references (OpenRouter, Apple CoreML).

business-to-consumer freemium with paid tier ~EUR 7.99/month; business-to-business SaaS to coaches/academies at EUR 19–29/month per seat. Anchored against Strava Summit, Whoop membership, Hudl pricing, Clutch club tier, Wingfield Pro, MATCHi Business, Playtomic club SaaS.

Eight ranked channels (newsletter, partner clubs, tournament organisers, creator partnerships, Reddit / Discord, Telegram CIS, coach affiliates, paid). Five named growth loops with reality-check thresholds. CAC anchors from Foundry CRO 2026 CAC benchmarks.

"Ran against to . Non-pass count: 3. (plateau-stuck regular) verdict: pass_with_caveats. Failure modes detected: missing_trigger ('skill stagnation is a feeling, not an event'), vanity_moat ('generic match video accumulates, but unless tied to a per-player longitudinal record, the data does not improve the rating model')."

Markdown-format adversarial review of the consolidated brief. Companion files: 16/multi-persona-audit.md and 16/dod-checklist.md.

AJTBD interview guide for the 6–8 qualitative interviews referenced in each job-story's gaps_to_probe_next. Confidence ratings on through will rise from 0.30–0.35 toward 0.7+ after the interview wave runs.

The audited HTML report. Every numeric or strategic claim in the brief is sourced from one of the artefacts above. Each URL referenced in the brief was checked HTTP 200 by scripts/verify_links.sh at render time.

Structured data layer used to render slide and section content. Mirrors the canonical brief; do not edit by hand.

Per-run landing page; not investor-ready. The customer-facing version is the strategic brief in reports/final/.